Saturday, January 19, 2008

Momentum Builds

Tonight, American voters again saw evidence of the not-yet-inevitable -- the emergence of each party's front runner. The conventions will be contentious, and there may yet be a few surprises. However, Romney's enormous win in Nevada and Hillary's narrow one put still more pressure on their rivals to perform.

The pollsters were, this time, correct in South Carolina in that McCain and Huckabee were within plus or minus four points of each other when the votes were counted. That win goes to McCain, but Romney's fund-raising dominance will be nearly impossible to beat in the long run. In addition, McCain's pragmatic approach to immigration and border security will meet with resistance from single-issue anti-immigration voters who will hold huge sway in this election.

Despite his strong showing in South Carolina, Huckabee's speech there teetered close to a bow out, but ended with some classic rallying lines. He is planning to hit the "reset" button, and take tomorrow as a new day. It is doubtful voters will be able to reset their opinion of Huckabee that easily and fully admit him as a first-tier candidate. It is notable that Thompson, who looked rather gray-faced addressing his troops shows no intentions of dropping out of the race. Also remarkable is Paul's 14 percent showing in Nevada: One can only surmise that the original Gen Xers and geeks are still buying his libertarian, antiwar message.

Florida is next for the GOP, in ten days time. If Giuliani's results there are thunderously different than they have been elsewhere, he will manage to make his voice heard in this debate. But it's starting to seem that Republicans are now fighting to set the ideological and policy agenda for the next presidency more than to work and reside in 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

And the Democrats ... well, even with the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union in Las Vegas, Obama couldn't pull out a win. Edwards couldn't even get a pulse. He can only hope for better with his home crowd in South Carolina next weekend. Meanwhile the Clinton machine, too, rolls on.

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